October 12-14, 2009 - Westin Riverwalk Hotel - San Antonio, TX
Part of the SGA Fall Leadership Conference
The SGA Gas Forecasters Forum is an invaluable meeting for professionals involved in the important field of gas forecasting. Make plans today to attend this one of a kind meeting.
FULL AGENDA
Click here to return to the Registration page. Select Gas Forecasters Forum from the options on the registration form.
FORECASTERS FORUM TOPICS:
- Winter Weather Outlook - Craig Lengyel, DTN Metereorologix
- NASA Weather Satellite Project to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting - Glynnis Lough, Ph.D, Research Scientist, Battelle
- Optimal / Normal Weather Patterns -
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Professor and Texas State Climatologist, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University
- Conservation Incentive Programs - Joanne Zablonski of National Fuel Gas Distribution will share the results of their program in New York.
- Incorporating Climate Change Into Forecasting Methodology - Randy Barcus, Chief Economist, Avista Corp.
- Forecast Revisions Resulting from Economic Downturn - Andredw Bradford, Bentek Energy and other Speakers TBA
- Research Update - Dr. Ron Brown, GasDay and Marquette University
- New Technology Updates - exhibiting vendors will be given 5-10 minutes on the agenda for new tech updates.
- Roundtable Discussion. Topics will include Impact of Wind / Solar Generation on Natural Gas Demand Forecasting; and other topics to be submitted by participants
FALL LEADERSHIP GENERAL SESSION TOPICS:
Special Guest Speaker: Victor Carillo, Chairman, Railroad Commission of Texas
Climate Change / Greenhouse Gas Legislative Update - Panel Discussion with Kyle Rogers, AGA, and Ravi Kura, El Paso Pipeline Corp.
- Mr. Rogers, Managing Director of Legislative Affairs for the American Gas Association, will provide the latest information on GHG / Climate Change legislation, focusing on the impact on local distribution companies.
- Mr. Kura, Environmental Manager for El Paso Pipelines, will provide an update on how legislation has impacted the pipeline industry and what we can expect going forward.
Gas Supply/Demand Balance and Infrastructure Outlook - Andrew Bradford, Senior Analyst, Bentek Energy Bentek is a leader in the energy industry. serving many of the top firms , including mega-majors, independent producers, ipeline companies, and utilities, as well as the largest energy hedge funds, financial institutions and industry regulators.
A small vendor tabletop exhibit is also planned.
Exhibitors will also have an opportunity for a brief presentation to Forum attendees.
Contact Pat Downey for details or click here for the Exhibit Registration
Click here to return to the Fall Leadership main page and to register
Task Force Members: Jim Fay, GKA Research ; Fred Monger, Atmos Energy; Jack Dunlap, PG & E; Bill Culpepper, Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia; Joanne Zablonski, National Fuel Gas Distribution Corp.; Tom Quinn, Marquette University
NOTE: The annual GasDay Users Group meeting will be held prior to the Conference on Monday October 12, 8:30 to 11:30 a.m. For information contact Tom Quinn at thomas.quinn@marquette.edu
At last year's Gas Forecasters Forum, Fred Connell of
Nisource presented a demand model he was working on. An article on his model
recently appeared in Public Utilities Fortnightly. Congratulations to Fred!
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ARCHIVED INFORMATION (scroll down)
2008 Forum Information:
Winter Weather Outlook: Metereologix - click here
Conditional Demand Forecasting - Herb Emmrich - click here
Gas Forecasters Forum Topics:
- Forecasting customer growth and attrition
- Sector gas consumption trends
- Forecasting model improvements
- Daily demand uncertainty: forecasting and gas supply issues
- Weather normalization strategies
- Gas price elasticity
- Winter weather outlook
Click here to view a preliminary agenda
In addition to in-depth, analytical sessions in the Gas Forecasers Forum, attendees will also benefit from attending outstanding General Sessions on important issues impacting everyone in the natural gas industry
- The Politics of Energy: Emerging Issues, Myths and Hype Moderator: Tom Hawkins, President, Atmos Energy Louisiana
Guest Speaker: Nora Brownell, former FERC Commissioner and President, BC Strategies
- Gas Supply Outlook and Trends
Guest Speaker: Bill Wince, Chesapeake Energy (invited)
- The Economic Outlook: Energy, US and Global Markets
Guest Speaker: Dr. Loren Scott, Economist and President, Loren C. Scott & Associates
Sources of Climate and Climate Outlook Information:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php
Visit the SGA Library to access the slides/handouts from the past conferences:
Forecasting and Supply Planning Practices
Survey
This survey was conducted in 1991, 1995, 2000 and 2005 (updated approximately every 5 years). The survey contains information on the following:
- Forecasting Daily Requirements
- Winter Period Design Day Weather
- Daily Forecasting Accuracy
- Daily / Seasonal Contract Entitlement Level of Supply
- Operations
- Open Access of LDC Markets
This project was sponsored by SGA, American Gas Association, Canadian
Gas Association, Gas Technology Institute, Northeast Gas Association, and Ohio Gas Association.
To download an order form, 2005 Forecasting Survey order form.
Gas Forecasters Interest Group Listserve
(gasforecastersonline@sgainfo.org)
This listserve is simply a method of electronic mail
transfer where email is distributed to a set list of recipients from a
central point. When you subscribe to gasforecastersonline@sgainfo.org,
your name and e-mail address is automatically added to the list.
You will receive a standard letter of welcome (via e-mail) telling you
about the list. From that time on, you will receive all mail (postings)
sent to the list by its members. You may follow the discussions or join
in on them. If you respond, you can send your response to the list (in
which case, all members of the list will receive it), or to an individual
on the list. You can signoff (unsubscribe) from a list at any time.
How to subscribe:
To join gasforecastersonline@sgainfo.org, send a message to:
gasforecastersonline-request@sgainfo.org
Put "SUBSCRIBE" as the first and only line
in the message body. A a message indicating success or failure will be
sent to you by gasforecastersonline@sgainfo.org.
How to unsubscribe:
To unsubscribe to gasforecastersonline@sgainfo.org, send a mail message
to:
gasforecastersonline-request@sgainfo.org
Put "UNSUBSCRIBE" as the first and only line
in the message body.
For more information or if you experience difficulty, contact pdowney @southerngas.org).
Resources
Welcome to the Gas Forecasters Interest Group Resource
Center. Below is a list of product and service providers you may find
useful.
Energy Solutions International - Houston, TX
www.energy-solutions.com
The Load Forecast System (LFS) predicts hourly gas loads on a meter-by-meter
basis for as long as reliable weather forecast information is available.
Honeywell - Duluth, GA
www.acs.honeywell.com
Gas forecasting software.
GASDAY - Marquette University
www.gasday.com
Dr. Ronald H. Brown, Associate Professor of Electrical and Computer
Engineering at Marquette University, and research assistants have developed
an Gas Load Estimation and Analysis Tool. The GASDAY, GasHour, GasMonth,
and GasYear (coming soon) software works for all size LDCs, usable anywhere,
and for any size market. The GASDAY website provides information on
our various software and services that are sure to meet all of your
forecasting needs.
Iowa State University - Ames, IA
www.iastate.edu
Adaptive computing laboratory neural tools, tool kit, software for data
driven modeling and forecasting.
NewEnergy Associates - Atlanta, GA
www.newenergyassoc.com
Software and consulting services for NewEnergy Sendout and New Energy
Nostradamus.
Planalytics, Inc. - Wayne, PA
www.planalytics.com
Weathernomics gas buyer.
PRT, Inc. - Dallas, TX
www.prt-inc.com
PRT, Inc. is a consulting, research and development firm offering specialized
expertise in forecasting, system modeling, artificial neural networks,
fuzzy logic, pattern recognition, and intelligent systems. Since 1995,
PRT has been involved in developing state-of-the-art load forecasting
tools for the electric and natural gas industries.
Regional Economic Research, Inc. - San Diego, CA
www.rer.com
RER is an energy and economic consulting firm specializing in forecasting
and the development of software tools. MetrixND is widely used for the
development of short-term energy and price forecasts. NDAuto is a companion
to MetrixND that automates forecasting of daily gas sent out and market
prices.
WSI - Billerica, MA
www.wsi.com
2007 Gas Forecasters Forum Conference presentations:
Fay GFF07
Emmrich GFF07
Brown GFF07
Fay Customer Attrition GFF07
Dean GFF07
Johnson GFF07
Nikolich GFF07
